XAUUSD — Value Acceptance Around 3,995

Auction State XAUUSD on H2 remains in a directional bearish auction, but price is now approaching the lower edge of the current distribution near 3,960–3,975, where the market may begin testing whether the downside auction is becoming too extended. Gold dropped below $4,000 on Friday to a three-month low and was heading for roughly a 4% weekly decline, its steepest weekly loss since June. Rising oil prices have renewed inflation concerns and strengthened expectations that U.S. rates may remain restrictive for longer.

The Fed is still widely expected to hold rates at its October 27–28 meeting…