Why June rains move markets: the monsoon and India’s farm economy

The south-west monsoon brings most of India’s annual rainfall between June and September. It normally sets in over Kerala around 1 June and covers the whole country by early July.

What “normal” means

IMD compares seasonal rainfall with the long period average (LPA) — 87 centimetres for the country as a whole, based on 1971–2020 data. Rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is called normal; below 90% is deficient; above 110% is excess.

Why it matters for farms

Kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, soybean, cotton and groundnut are sown with the monsoon. A large share of India’s farmland has no assured irrigation, so the timing of rain matters as much as the total: a long dry spell in July can hurt sowing even in a “normal” year.

From fields to markets

A good monsoon refills reservoirs, supports rural incomes and usually eases food inflation. That lifts demand for tractors, two-wheelers, fertiliser and everyday consumer goods, which is why company results and share prices in these sectors are watched closely through the season.

How to follow it

IMD publishes daily rainfall maps and weekly district-wise departures from normal. Our Weather & monsoon and Farmers & agriculture pages bring together the latest reports from across the country.